• Research Paper on:
    Economic Forecasting

    Number of Pages: 6

     

    Summary of the research paper:

    In six pages this paper examines the differences in 3 economic forecasts in a consideration of figure interaction and methods of calculation. Four sources are listed in the bibliography.

    Name of Research Paper File: TS14_TEforecs.rtf

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    Unformatted Sample Text from the Research Paper:
    as regression analysis, mathematical equations with different weighting, and even intuition may play a role. Most forecasts come from econometric models. The  level of importance that are attracted to these statistics also indicates the reliance and impact that they are capable of having on an economy. For example, if projections or forecasts  see a recession, this may become a self-fulfilling prophecy due to the way in which people and business will alter their economic activity. However, forecasting is not as definitive science,  there are many deviations and variations that can be seen, even in the leading economic indicators such as GDP and inflation will vary in both definition and calculation. If we  look at forecasts from three sources we will see that there are some differences, in understanding the differences and how they materialise we can then look to the best way  of forecasting, ort learn lessons in the practices that may be seen as least likely to produce the correct results. The first set of forecasts are from Carmetrics.com. The forecasts  here are for the next five years, however, we will look at the forecasts for 2002 and 2003 as annual figures. The GDP, gross domestic product can be measured and  reported in different ways, However, if there is not an allowance for inflation then the figures may be misleading, indicating growth that is accounted for only by inflations. The figure  we will look at here is real growth in GDP, this is the growth in real terms, which is the nominal growth adjusted to reduce the amount of growth that  occurs as a result of inflation. This is projected at 1.6% for 2002 and 2.2% for 2003. This appear to be an optimistic projection for the economy, the unemployment is 

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