This 5 page paper uses a student-provided data set that needs to be analyzed by statistical means, including linear regression, trend analysis and seasonal adjustment. The writer explains how these analyses are done and provides two graphs to demonstrate. There are 2 sources listed in the bibliography.
Name of Research Paper File: TS14_TEstatal.rtf
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future. In this case we have been given the figures by the student and the first step is to plot them on a graph. Here we can see that the
goods are showing a seasonal trend, with the forth quarter being higher than the others. The graph is below, once we have looked at it we can consider it more
carefully. Here we can see that there is a very definite trend. The sales increase through the year each year. Growing to a peak in the forth quarter
and then falling back in the first quarter. There has also been a over trend for growth, however this has been greater towards the end of the year. As a
result we also see a trend of widening gaps between the different quarter, especially with the increases in the last quarter. When we look at this the 1993 figures
are missing from quarters 3 and 4 and as such we don not know hat the final outcome was, but if the trends can be seen as accurate then we
would expect there to be another increase here. If we wish to look at the trends in a more generalised manner then we can use then the use of
an averaging tool may be useful. One of these is the use of centred moving averages. In this we can look at the overall trends. The tool takes the average
of the fluctuations for a given set of data and then plots this to give a more simple line. There are two ways that we may seek to use
this in order to gain an idea of the trends. If we look at the way we have plotted the chart above we have used the quarters, and the
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