• Probability Case Study

    Pages: 4

    This 3 page paper examines a probability cases presented by the student. A couple are convicted of a crime based on their description and the statistical probability of the couple being a 1 in 12 million chance, calculated with independent variables. The paper looks at how and why the conviction may have been overturned at appeal, considering the way the probability was calculated and the way that probabilities were determined in the first place.

    File: TS14_TEprobcase.rtf

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    Sample Text:
    was a robbery, the robbers were described and the descriptions were used in order to calculate the probability of finding any couple meeting the same description. The evidence indicated the  chances were one in 12 million; as such the jury appeared to have been convinced. If we look at the way probability works then we first need to consider  how this result was research so we can consider why and how an appeal may have overturned it. We are given the variables for the Caucasian woman with blond hair  in a ponytail who escaped in a yellow car driven by an African-American male with a moustache and beard as 1/10, 1/4, 1/10 1/3, 1/10, and 1/1000. The different aspects  of the way this was presented indicates that these were all seen as independent factors. Where there are different factors whose outcome  do not depend on each other then the way in which a probability is calculated is based in the multiplication of the different probabilities. In this case if we look  at the different probabilities given, and assume they are correct then this sum appears to be correct. Multiplying each of the probabilities will give us a 1 in 12 million  chance. However we need to look at this in order to consider how correct it is. Here we can look at two aspects, first the way the calculation has taken  place and if these truly are independent variables. When we have looked at that we can also consider how reliable the probabilities given really are. We will assume that the probabilities  are as given below. Caucasian woman (a) 1/4 Blond hair (b) 1/10 In a ponytail (b) 1/3 

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