Research Paper on:
Statistical Case Study; The Use of A Simulation Model

Unformatted Sample Text from the Research Paper:
to ship good to a customer XYZ. The company have the opportunity to enter into a contract for a set number of units to be carried by air freight, with  a guarantee of a set price, but if the carriage is not used the fee will still be payable. The company have a long history of orders with the customer  this means there is the potential for statistical analysis. There are several approaches which can be adopted. The first is to look at the probability of each outcome.  Probability is used to create a statistical inference where it is possible to seek to make an inference concerning uncertainties, so that using known data to predict the likelihood of  future outcomes. The use of probability will allow this approach to generalise regarding the future (Brown et al, 2002). This can be undertaken with the use of odds. The probability  of an even (p) against it not occurring (1-p) with the probability of an event not occurring being p/(1-p). This is usually shown as the ratio of non vents to  the events, which can be used to assess the different options that may occur and to which ABC needs to consider. There are five main approaches to using probability. The  first is the classical approach. Here there is the assumption that all outcomes are equally likely, as such this is not a suitable approach (Delbecq, 1975). The second is  the relative frequency approach. This is an approach that makes use of historical data here the equation is P(X) = the number of times where an event has occurred /the  times the event had an opportunity to occur. The assumption is that the same patterns of the past will continue (Delbecq, 1975). The third approach is the subjective approach,